There has been a lot made about the fall in visits as prescribed by Comscore to Facebook in recent weeks; with many jumping on the bandwagon about the inevitable demise of this platform.
As with all data, the truth lies in the context. Firstly Facebook themselves have question these figures and have gone on the offensive stating their own figures which are contray to this. But more significantly I believe the answer to this dip lies in greater understanding in people's relationship with the technology.
People don't use Facebook (or any other technology) in a liner and total fashion. Sometime as marketers we see a stat (like high penetration) and take it at too much face value. Facebook like all other technologies is used in a very non-liner fashion, and as such it will have greater significance at different times in peoples lives. This significance is what drives usage, and like with all factors of life, environmental and contextual factors drive or limit this usage.
For me it is no coincidence that we saw a dip in usage over December. Most young people where either winding down from school (i.e. going to their last few social events of the year) and then being packed-off to spend 2 weeks with the family. Such a context means that young people aren't indulging in social activity so much, and therefore there is less of reason to share these experiences with their peers. As such, I expect to see and hear a lot more chatter about the seasonal driven of social media platforms from clients and advertisers as they attempt to understand how best to leverage theses tools in delivering relevant and meaningful messages into peoples lives.
Seasonality is certainly one reason for this dip; but there is also a greater underlying implication of greater understanding consumers relations with these technologies - why they use them in the first place: enter the concept of "social objects".
I was having a chat earlier spurred on from the interesting “Great Facebook” debate at Bima. Now to believe many there apparently there is some great opportunities for brands to tap into such networks for their own corporate gain – obviously in a way that is becoming to the medium???
But what does becoming to the medium mean? In my opinion some of these foke have ‘gold fever’ and look at such enteritis as only potential $$’s. Well I hate to burst your bubble but simple talking to people in such networks like they are your buddy (added or otherwise) isn’t going to cut it.
In the first instance I believe that Facebook only has a few more good years as the main social platform before people will just get bored of pokes, widgets and long lost friends getting in contact. Not too mention the potential ‘turn off’ from companies trying to leverage it – just think how annoying MySpace is with SPAM esq. messages form companies leading you to porn!
Undeniably, online social networks have help to create and perpetuate a new type of online behaviour and media consumption – but thinking Facebook will be around for ever is just naive – after all we are talking about probably the most fast moving environment ever created – and if there is one thing nature has taught us is that ultimately large & clunky always gives way to small & speedy when the rules of the game change – and guess what those rules have already started to change.
And I am not talking about my mates who unequivocally state that they have ‘had enough’ of Facebook, but instead I am talking about a more profound appreciation of why facebook works in the 1st place. It’s about 'Social Objects' not so much social networks. Anthropology tells us that people revolve around things that help us socialise with our peers and Facebook did this very well for the 1st time. But now people want to have a Facebook experience but more selectively, and not with everyone they have ever known – but rather based around there specific interest at specific times – hence the success of sites like the plannersphere – this is the model of the future and companies will have a hard time chasing this fragmented social networking landscape.
Instead companies should focus on creating great experience for us to all go to and enjoy in the real world and just let us talk about them in our networks and let WOFM do its stuff….
Just a thought? What do you think the future is for FB?
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